Alaskans - Did You Know Expirations For Driver's Licenses Are Suspended During the COVID-19 Emergency?

 I didn't either. 

My wife's license is expiring soon and she wanted to renew it. She called to see if she could renew it online or by mail.  Well, you could, they said, but you're over 69 so you have to come in. 

She got an appointment for 3:45pm, but there was still a long line.  BUT people were masked and keeping their distance and the clerks were separated by plexiglass or something.  Neither of us have had any symptoms and it's been a week or so.  

But I did send an email to the Director of the DMV and the Assistant Director.

The email back to me was also shared with someone in the Department of Administration (I'd copied by State Rep and State Senator).  Today I got an email from the person at DOA.  It says: 

". . . attached please find the Order of Suspension 2, on page 24 please find, the DMV AS 28.15.101(a) is suspended. This suspension applies to the expiration date of all driver licenses, and we have asked that this suspension be continued."

Clearly, the clerk my wife talked to by phone at the DMV didn't know this.  And neither did the Deputy Director of the DMV who originally responded to my email with:

"It is possible for your wife to renew her license online at https://online.dmv.alaska.gov/DMVMailInRenewal/index.aspx if she is younger than 69. For those 69 years of age and older, Alaska has a statute (AS 28.15.101 (c) (2)) that states that if an applicant is 69 years of age or older on the expiration date of the driver’s license being renewed then their license may not be renewed online or through the mail, which is why we’re limited."

 So I'm letting others know this.  The snow tire ban through September is also suspended.  There are lots of things on the list of suspensions.  A lot have to do with health procedures, fees, etc.  Also there are a lot on Retirement and Pensions.  

The whole list is below.  

07.30.20 Order of Suspensio... by Steve

Wow! Republican Right Knocked Off A Bunch Of Incumbents In Yesterday's Primary

I haven't kept close tabs on the Republican primaries this year, but I do know there's been a split between the Party and a number of Republicans who have worked closely with Democrats in the House and Senate.  

A quick look at the results (you can see them all here) shows a Republican primary massacre of incumbents like never before.  Will this lead to new Republican dominance in the state legislature?  Or will it make it easier for Democrats in November.  Probably not in Matsu, but I'm not sure about the rest of the state.  

Here are some results:

In the Senate

Senate President Cathy Giessel lost 28% to 71% to Roger Holland on Anchorage Hillside.

Long time Republican incumbent John Coghill got 47% to Robert Myers 52% in Fairbanks.

Natasha Von Imhoff got 48% to Stephen Duplantis' 51%.

Gary Stevens lost 48% to 51% to John Cox in Kodiak. (only 95% of precincts reported, but he's down almost 900 votes 1403-1334.  Not likely.)

 Incumbent David Wilson won with 32% against seven others.

Bert Stedman comfortably kept his seat (64%)

Newly appointed Josh Revak got 64%.  

In the House, 

Incumbent Mark Neuman lost 37% to Kevin McCabe's 62% in Matsu.

Incumbent Gabielle LeDoux got creamed (20%) to David Nelson's 79%.

Incumbent Jennifer Johnston also got creamed (27%) to James Kaufman's 73%

Recently deceased incumbent Gary Knopp got 13% of the vote to Ronald Gilhman's 61% (a 3rd candidate got 24%)

Former Rep Lynn Gattis lost 28% to former Right to Life Board Member Christopher Kurka.

Bizarre Right David Eastman won 51% to Jesse Sumner's 48%.

The ruthless hand of Tucker Babcock has clearly been busy.  

Short Takes - RPCV Joins Alaska SC, Maxwell Arrest, Racism Like Apple Pie, Russian Bounty

Note: Another big COVID increase today.  Click COVID tab above for daily updates on state case counts

1.   Alaska's newly appointed Supreme Court justice Dario Borghesan is an RPCV (Returned Peace Corps Volunteer) who served in Togo.



2.   Just hearing her name on the news for being involved with Jeffrey Epstein doesn't give you a sense of Ghislaine* Maxwell's role in the Jeffrey Epstein world.   The Netflix series Jeffrey Epstein:  Filthy Rich brings their crimes clearly into the light.  And how well connected rich people can get away with things on a scale 'normal' folks would never even imagine.  Well worth watching.


3.

“Racism is so American that when you protest it, people think you’re protesting America.”

— romy🦋 (@romyreiner) July 2, 2020

This says it all.  But for many people it makes no sense at all.  Which proves the point.**



4.  Did Russia pay the Taliban bounties to kill US troops?  Of course.  Just like we armed and paid the Mujahideen to do the same in Afghanistan when the Soviet Union took over there.  But since Afghanistan bordered the Soviet Union** and the US is half a world away - it's much easier for Russia to do.  But even with the geographic advantage, the Soviet Union was forced out of Afghanistan.


*Throughout the Netflix series the pronunciation of her name was in serious conflict with my natural visual bent.  I'd have done better had I never seen it written.  But this is irrelevant.  She's a seriously evil person and her arrest may bring some comfort to her many victims.

**I realize this is a bit enigmatic for those who don't think of racism as being like apple pie.  If this leaves you scratching your head, just leave a (civil) comment and we can talk about it.

***Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were then part of the Soviet Union.  Today they are independent countries and are between Russia and Afghanistan.

Alaskans Can Choose Ranked Choice Voting This Year

Well, that's ambiguous.  Alaskans can't actually choose a ranked choice ballot.   But we have a ballot measure coming up that, if passed, would change our voting to ranked choice.

You mark your first choice #1, your second choice #2, etc.  And if your first choice comes out last, then your 2nd choice candidate gets your vote.  That way, if there are two candidates you like, you can vote for them both.

I was reminded of this the other night when Hasan Minhaj promoted Ranked Choice Voting on his Netflix show Patriot Act.  But I know that not everyone has Netflix.  What to do?  I haven't figured out how to put up clips from Netflix.  Minhaj is brilliant. If I were still teaching public administration classes, I would use his shows as homework assignments for a number of classes.  Though there is a profanity warning.  (Is that still an issue at universities today?  Berkeley students fought that back in 1965.

But there's a good synopsis of some of the key points on this Youtube based on the show.  Watch it.  If you're an Alaskan, share it with everyone you know to let them know this can be ours.  Maine already does this.  This clip captures the essence of the show, but if you have Netflix, go look at the whole episode.

Carting Off McCandless' Bus Reflects Alaska's Cultural Bias

The State of Alaska removed the bus where Chris McCandless died and that has become a mecca for those who connected with Chris through the book and movie Into The Wild.  A number of his fans hiked cross country to reach the bus, braving river crossings that can at times be treacherous.  The basic reason given for removing the bus was to save lives and reduce rescue costs.

Note: COVID tab above for daily updates on state case counts

I've thought about it.  Getting rid of the McCandless bus is a form of cultural discrimination.  The justification is to protect people from danger and death and to reduce rescue costs.

But aside from cruise ships, Alaska tourism is all about attracting people to adventures in the wilderness - camping, kayaking, hunting. (And even cruise passengers die in flight seeing and other adventures sold on board.)

The epitome is climbing Denali.  We love the idea of people overcoming obstacles to reach the peak of North America's highest mountain, even though people die every year trying and we spend tens of thousands of dollars or more in rescue efforts.  It's just that McCandless wasn't the rugged adventurer type that Alaskans idealize and his followers are seen as sentimental and emotional about the wrong things.  (After all climbing Denali is also an emotion driven pursuit.)

And probably most important, no one was making lots of money off the Bus pilgrims, like they do from hunters, fishers, mountain climbers, and other adventure travelers.  No one set up a McCandless Bus guiding expedition.  If they had, the bus would still be there.

From the Anchorage Daily News:

"The removal of the bus comes in response to the public safety hazards caused by its presence and location, Department of Natural Resources spokesman Dan Saddler said.
Between 2009 and 2017, there were 15 bus-related search and rescue operations by the state, according to the natural resources department.
Saddler said he hoped its removal would 'reduce injuries, search and rescues, loss and even death that have occurred in connection with this bus.'”

But really, people die all the time in Alaska following their dreams.

And we're told we have twice the accidental death rate of the US as a whole.  Here are some stats on unintentional deaths.

The National Park Service allows people to climb Denali every year (though COVID spared the mountain this year from all the garbage and waste climbers leave) despite deaths and many rescues.

The National Park Service has a series of reports on Denali from 1979 to 1989.  Here are some excerpts from the 1989 report.  Each paragraph is a separate incident.

On 2/16/89 a very experienced four person Japanese team flew into the SE Fork of the Kahiltna Glacier to attempt a winter ascent of the West Buttress. The leader, Noboru Yamada, was on a quest to become the first person to climb to the summit of the highest mountain on each of the seven continents in the winter. Teruo Saegusa, Kozo Komatsu and Shunzo Sato were the other team members. Sato became ill early in the climb and returned to base camp to wait for the others. The remaining three reached the 17,200' high camp on 2/20... the same day a team of Austrians returned to high camp from a successful summit bid. On 2/21, neither team could move because of severe weather. On 2/22 there was a short break in the weather and the Austrians began their descent. The Japanese team was still in their camp. They were not seen alive or heard from again. Weather soon deteriorated and an extremely severe wind storm enveloped the upper mountain. Wind speeds were estimated to be 200 mph and continued through 2/26. Winds then decreased somewhat to 60-90 mph through 3/9. On 3/10, search flights located what appeared to be three bodies below Denali Pass. Search efforts were terminated on 3/11. It is believed that the climbers tried for the summit during a brief lull in the severe wind storm and were caught near Denali Pass as the winds again increased. The bodies were recovered later in March by a 17 person team of Japanese climbers who came to Alaska for that purpose. The three men died from hypothermia. 

. . .He placed an anchor, climbed about 40' above it, then encountered an ice window. He grabbed under the window then leaned out for a better look at his options. Suddenly the entire formation upon which he was climbing collapsed. Sweeney, and the 15'-wide, 35'- high and 6'-thick ice formation fell down the couloir. His anchor held, but his hip was fractured in the resulting 100' fall and avalanche. The events of the next seven days are too involved to detail here (CIR #890016) but proved to be a test of endurance and of their will to survive. During this time, either one or both of the men were hit by eight different avalanches. Weather deteriorated and prevented all access to the mountains by rescue teams. The two men were eventually rescued by a military helicopter on 4/26.

Early the next day, a National Park Service Mountaineering Ranger camped at the 14,200' basin on the West Buttress, noticed what appeared to be bodies at the base of the Orient Express, a couloir which cuts across the upper West Rib. The rescue team discovered all three of the Brits died in a fall. It appeared the men were probably descending the West Rib, roped together, in extremely poor weather, when one of them slipped and pulled the others down the couloir.

 One especially violent gust tore one of the tents, with three occupants, from its anchors. The tent and occupants began a tumbling fall toward the Peter's Glacier. One occupant, John Richards, the assistant guide, was ejected early in the fall and came to rest 300' below the ridge campsite. The other two occupants, Jim Johnson and Howard Tuthill, fell 1,000' and came to rest on a small ledge dressed only in polypro underwear. All equipment and clothing were lost in the fall. The assistant guide was able to ascend to the camp and alert others of the accident. The chief guide, Dave Stahaeli, was able to descend and provide some survival equipment to Johnson and Tuthill. Others on the mountain, including the Denali Medical Project personnel and private mountaineers, organized a difficult and dangerous rescue effort, eventually stabilizing the two men who were flown off the mountain the following day via helicopter. Johnson suffered a compression fracture of a lumbar vertebrae and Tuthill frostbit his fingers. Both men were saved by the rescue efforts.

High Altitude Pulmonary Edema, ground evacuation:
A Genet Expedition trip led by Dave Stahaeli reached the 17,200' high camp on 6/21/89. There they waited three days for weather to improve. One of the clients, John Michel, had been feeling poorly earlier in the trip. At high camp, he lacked energy and spent most of the three days sleeping. It was decided he would not attempt the summit. On 6/24 all expedition members left for the summit except for Michel who remained in camp. No other parties were at high camp. Late that afternoon, another Genet team arrived at high camp and discovered Michel to be suffering from HAPE. They evacuated him to the 14,200' camp where Michel received treatment and recovered. There were other incidents of altitude illness and frostbite this season. Most of these were treated at the Denali Medical Project camp at the 14,200' basin on the West Buttress.

Surely rescuing people at Denali elevations and weather extremes is more costly and dangerous than where the McCandless bus was.

While Denali climbs involve complex preparations, lots of money, and registration, the cost of rescues is not covered by the person rescued.

Here's from a US Senate Report on Denali rescues:

At 20,320 feet, Mt. McKinley is the highest mountain in
North America. In 1998, 1,166 climbers from 38 countries
attempted to climb the mountain, an increase of 250 percent
since 1978. Largely because of bad weather, only 36 percent of
all climbers successfully reached the summit in 1998, down from
a historical average of about 50 percent.
    The 1998 climbing season was typical in that it involved
climbing deaths and several life-saving rescue missions. The
policy of the National Park Service is to ``make reasonable
efforts to search for lost persons and to rescue sick, injured
or stranded persons.''
    As a general rule, the National Park Service does not
recover search and rescue costs. When individual search and
rescue incidents cost more than $500, they are paid from a
central account

The [now canceled] 2020 climbing season has this information about fees for permits to climb Denali:

Q: Do I have to pay anything at the time of registration?
A: Yes, climbers are required to pay the full permit fee when they submit the registration form. The cost of a mountaineering permit for the 2020 season (October 1, 2019 through September 30, 2020) is $375 US currency. Climbers who are 24 years old or younger at the time their expedition begins are eligible for a $275 youth fee. Note that each year the mountaineering special use fee is subject to increase based on Consumer Price Index changes.
It is also important to be aware that when you arrive to check in for your climb, a park entrance fee of $15 per person will be due. Interagency passes are accepted in lieu of the entrance fee. Passes must be presented at the time of check in along with identification. 

Cultural bias comes in many different colors.  Methinks the dreamy, listless image of McCandless and his fans clashes with the rugged, macho adventurer image Alaska likes to promote.  And that's why the bus was removed.  After all, adventure and risk is part of the Last Frontier image.

Why The Dunleavy Recall Is Still Critical

You can pick your from a number of examples, even while he's done a reasonable job of letting Dr. Anne Zink set the tone and policies on COVID until recently.  But he's also cone the kinds of things that got so many signatures so quickly onto the initial recall petition:

• Half million dollar no bid contract to Florida company to provide online education in Alaska, without any prior announcements or consultation with educators
• Letter of support from his AG to Judge Sullivan to drop the charges against Gen. Flynn
• Allowing tens of thousands of people to come to Alaska to commercial fish this summer with minimal preparation for local health facilities, the people in the small communities where they will work or where their boats dock, and trusting the fishing companies to monitor their quarantines and their COVID testing

Those are just a few examples.  Today we have another.  He's given an interview on Youtube with Dana Loesch, while not granting such one-on-one interviews to Alaskan reporters, who might ask him more than softball questions.

Cool but my listeners and readers actually live in Alaska and I've been asking your press secretary for an interview for literally weeks and he doesn't respond, so let me know what I'm missing here #AKleg https://t.co/MEAeIONL2Y

— Nat Herz (@Nat_Herz) May 28, 2020

So who is Dana Loesch?  Here's the start of Wikipedia's description:

"Dana Lynn Loesch (/læʃ/ LASH; née Eaton; born September 28, 1978) is an American former spokesperson for the National Rifle Association. She is a former writer and editor for Breitbart News and the host of the program Dana on TheBlaze TV from 2014 to 2017. Loesch has appeared as a guest on television networks such as Fox News, CNN, CBS, ABC, and HBO."

There's a long, long piece about her in the St. Louis Magazine (where she once worked) about her transformation in life.  Here's one quote about her thoughts on journalists:

"After the mass shooting in the Capital Gazette newsroom, writer Shaun King tweets an old article in which the accused shooter said he wanted to smash the face of a reporter into concrete. King also tweets an old clip of Dana talking about mass media on NRATV: “I’m happy, just frankly, to see them curb-stomped… They are the rat bastards of the Earth.” He asks if she now sees why “it is disturbing that you said you want to smash the faces of journalists into concrete.” Dana says she was referring to reports being curb-stomped, not people. Then she says, 'I condemn the recklessness and violence you encourage.'”

If you need to watch the video it's here.  In this case, she fawns over his being the first governor to open up his state for stage three and he allows that we Alaskans trust our people to do the right thing, so we never had any threats to people if they didn't follow social distancing.  I guess if Nat Herz or Kyle Hopkins (who also tweeted he was never given an interview with the governor last year) might have followed up about whether that trust of Alaskans included letting women and their doctors decide about abortions.

This all seems like Dunleavy is working on national exposure with right wing viewers.  Is this a way to raise money to fight the recall vote?  Is he planning on running against Murkowski in the next Republican Senate primary?  Loesch is all sweetness and light in this interview.

He's also lucky because this seems to have been done yesterday, before today's stats showed the state had the highest jump in new cases - 13 - in over a month.  That may sound like a low number, and it is relative to other states - but for weeks the numbers have been under five.

What The Governor Vetoed And What He Didn't

From an email from my State Senator Elvi Jackson-Gray.
I really am not sure what it all means.  There's not enough total context.  I put it up just to get it into people's consciousness and so you can all start asking more questions.

Senate Bill 205 Operating Budget  I have included a non-exhaustive list of line-item vetoes proposed by Governor Dunleavy below, but you can find a full list at the link: https://bit.ly/2wlvDhF $30 million in Education and Early Childhood Development $36.7 million Regional Educational Attendance Area Deposit $12.5 million University of Alaska $100 million School Bond Debt Reimbursement $4.3 million Pre-K $1.05 billion transfer to the corpus of the Permanent Fund for inflation proofing $15.5 million Alaska Marine Highway $16.2 million AMHS crew quarters $31 million Medicaid $3.4 million Ocean Rangers $2 million Public Broadcasting $1 million Spill Prevention and Response $2 million Behavioral Health Treatment and Recovery Grants $2.7 million Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation $1 million Alaska Recidivism Reduction and Recovery project $3 million Alaska Housing Finance Corporation Weatherization $5 million Alaska Housing Finance Corporation Homeless COVID-19 Response $2 million Alaska Housing Finance Corporation Special Needs Housing $2.7 million Alaska Housing Finance Corporation Teacher Health and Public safety Professional Housing $3.4 million Medicaid Services $4.7 million Designated Evaluation and Treatment $334,000 from Appellate Courts $150,000 Rural Real ID Implementation.

Some Budget Items that were funded $99M to COVID-19 response and relief $135.6M to Alaska State Troopers $14M to Village Public Safety Officer Program $5M to Disaster Relief Fund  $5M to Fire Risk Reduction Funding $34.8M to Pioneer Homes  $54M to the Alaska Marine Highway System $1.26B to fully fund Education Foundation Formula $28.5M to Behavioral Health Programs $7.2M to Homeless Assistance Program $65M for Capital Federal Match Program to Highways and Aviation

In Passing - Dunleavy Recall Shifts Gears, Alaska Airlines Extends Elite Status To December 2021

Recall Dunleavy campaign adjusts to Corona virus

The recall campaign was set to get its 70,000 plus signatures pretty fast this year.  Then the virus and its social distancing requirements slowed things down greatly.
I have to acknowledge that Gov. Dunleavy has done reasonably well on the regular briefings on the Corona Virus.  He knows things.  He doesn't ramble too often.  And most importantly, he lets his superstar medical director Dr. Anne Zink explain things in her clear yet in-depth and dispassionate manner without interrupting her.  Or maybe he just looks good in comparison to someone else.
But off camera he continues to act in ways that remind us why so many people want him recalled - such as the $500,000 no bid, surprise contract for distance ed to a Florida organization.  And his recent vetoes of so much of the budget.

The recall campaign is now mailing petitions to people's homes.  Below are links to get your petition:

Thank you for working with us to save Alaska. 🌟

SIGN @ HOME

DONATE TO RECALL

RECALL UPDATES

Alaska Airlines extends people's elite status until December 2021.

Alaska Airlines sent us a congratulatory letter letting us know we had reached elite status back when we were flying to LA once a month when my mom, in her 90s, was not doing well.  We even got to MVP Gold two years.  With grandkids in San Francisco and Seattle, it's not hard getting our 20,000 miles for MVP each year now.  (Along with donations to organizations fighting climate change as a form of carbon offset.)

MVP offers us a few perks worth having:

• early and better selection of seats when booking (though this has deteriorated a bit)
• occasional upgrades to premium seats or first class
• frequent designation as pre-check to get us through security with less hassle
• early boarding flights
• a phone number that gets us to an operator without any wait when we need to call

So with flying questionable this year for many people, getting MVP this year didn't seem likely.  Until Alaska Airlines emailed yesterday to say it would be extended through next year.  Thanks.

Today's email was that food service was pretty much ended on flights for the time being on flights under 350 miles and a water bottle for longer flights.  But that merely limits unnecessary closer than 6 foot contact.  

I'd note that I'm not comfortable with the term 'elite status.'  I guess in part because Conservatives throw around the word 'elite' to indicate anyone with an education and because it is something of a class distinction in our supposedly classless society.  But I don't see any Republicans refusing to take advantage of the perks that come with MVP.  Nor do I see egalitarian Democrats refusing their upgrades either.  

Delayed Spring And, Uh, Tiger King

Two or three more inches of snow overnight.

I'd love to get out the cross country skis, but I'm unsure of social distancing on the trails.  With everyone isolating, I suspect a fair number of folks will be out today.

But I did go for a walk in the neighborhood.  No people out - except two way off in the distance.  And there's lots of room to get out of the way - just walk into the street.



Meanwhile, I've had these two mystery seeds lying around.  I know we got them out of a seed pod in California with my granddaughter, but I don't remember what plant it was.

I planted them yesterday and maybe I'll find out what the plant was.

And our tuberous begonias popped out the other day.  I'd cut them back last spring and put the flower pot in the garage.  Didn't even ask the house sitter to water them.  Though when we were home, I watered them.  Wasn't sure they'd come back.

A good sign, especially since sprouting outside will be more like 25 years ago than in recent years.

Not sure how the time goes by so quickly - and my todo list gets checked off so slowly.  Partly, I think because of the unexpected things I end up doing and forgetting to look at the list.  J likes to go to the market generally, but since we're using the app to get home delivery, it falls to me.  Ugh.

And I have to admit it - we finally finished Tiger King last night on Netflix.  Sure, the producers spiced it up, but the overriding question for me is:  What does this tell us about people in the United States?  The animal collectors, the breeders, the PETA folks, the people who go to the private zoos?  The people who send in donations to 'save the tigers'?  I couldn't help thinking that Joe Exotic behaved exactly like our president in many ways, just in a different environment.  Apparently a lot of other folks watched it too.  If any of you readers have seen it, please tell me what you thought.  

I'd recommend The English Game for those with Netflix.  About the working class football teams that challenged the upper class football players in Great Britain in the late 1800s.

Alaska COVID-19 Case Count - State Reports First Hospitalization And First Death - Will UPDATE

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total			12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos  1 death

I'm trying to find other confirmation of a death.  But here's what's on the State's newest update:

Note the last line in the chart above - 01 deaths.

I did hear on the radio about the first hospitalization, but not about a death.  Governor's COVID-19 press conference is at 6pm - here.  This link is easier - it's FB Live.  [UPDATE:  Confirmed in Press Conference now.  The person got the virus Outside of Alaska and passed away outside of Alaska.  More on this at ADN.  It said Federal Rules require Alaskans to be counted in Alaska even if they aren't there at the time.]

This is starting to show specific cities and towns, not just regions.

This is the first day where commercial tests outnumbered state tests, and it's by a lot!

I'll add more to this a little later.

Three Days Before 1964 Earthquake Anniversary - Jon Mooallem's Book This Is Chance Is Now Available

Looking for things to do while in self-isolation?  Order this book then listen to the podcast.

Genie Chance was a radio broadcaster in Anchorage when the earthquake hit, and her broadcasts got relayed from Fairbanks to the rest of the world.

"Slowly, people switched on their transistor radios and heard a familiar woman’s voice explaining what had just happened and what to do next. Genie Chance was a part-time radio reporter and working mother who would play an unlikely role in the wake of the disaster, helping to put her fractured community back together. Her tireless broadcasts over the next three days would transform her into a legendary figure in Alaska and bring her fame worldwide—but only briefly. That Easter weekend in Anchorage, Genie and a cast of endearingly eccentric characters—from a mountaineering psychologist to the local community theater group staging Our Town—were thrown into a jumbled world they could not recognize. Together, they would make a home in it again."

I 'met' Jon Mooallem first reading the intro to his book Wild Ones, which I wrote about here.

Then two years later I met him in person while on Bainbridge Island.  It turns out his daughter and my granddaughter are friends.  It took a while before I realized he was the guy who'd written Wild Ones.  And he was now writing about the 1964 Alaska Earthquake.  I wrote more about that here.

Well the new book is available as of today.  (I'm on his email list so I got a message about this today from him, and also from my daughter.)  So if you order it now you can probably get it while you're in isolation.

Meanwhile, this is the compelling audio telling of part of the book's story from two years ago, when he was working on the book.  It has lots of audio of Chance broadcasting and other audio from the time of the earthquake.  It's like an old fashioned radio show or a long This American Life story.   A great activity while you're stuck in the house.

The earthquake hit on March 27, 1964.  The 6 [5]6th anniversary will be Friday.

Here's a link where you can order the book from an Independent book store.


Here's a link to podcast interview with Jon from a couple of days ago.  I couldn't find a way to embed it here.

Alaska COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Up To 36

 It's harder to keep track of the numbers I set up based on the state numbers because they don't report things exactly like they did originally.  I'll keep posting those numbers at the bottom of these posts until I figure out a better way.  

Meanwhile I think this chart will help show the exponential growth that is beginning to occur.

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total			12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th= 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd=8/22
23rd=14/36

Here's what the State posted today:

The State hasn't posted how they've determined the date of onset.  But based on other studies I've seen in other countries, the number of confirmed cases lags behind onset.  My chart above shows that on March 15 there was only one confirmed case in Alaska.  But this shows lots of cases already there, so I'm guessing that this is a preview of the fast increase that's come in the last few days, and, presumably the next couple of weeks.  

This shows Anchorage numbers getting more proportional to its size.  Seven of the new Anchorage cases were confirmed on the military bases and that's why they declared an emergency Sunday night.

There was a sharp drop-off in tests.  Is that because of the weekend?  Or is it because the State has change the time they report cases?   Or?   I don't know. 

MY CHART - Yesterday the state first posted the two graphs from Saturday again on Sunday.  I had trouble working out my numbers in yesterday's post because of that.  They later fixed it and I added the new charts to yesterday's post.  I've adjusted the numbers from yesterday in the table below.  You'll see I'm having trouble in the columns on new negative state lab and new negative commercial lab tests.  The state began reporting those separately from the positive tests.  Now it doesn't say those are negative tests only (see two graphs above).  But it doesn't identify whether the positive tests were done in State or commercial labs.  As I've said in previous posts, I'm not sure why they thought it important to distinguish the two types of labs.  But with the change in how they report, I have to figure out whether and how to change the columns I'm reporting.  

Alaska Covid-19 Data by Steve on Scribd

Alaska COVID-19 COUNT Sunday March 22 - Up By 8 To 22 [UPDATED, Up to 32 Cases Sunday Night]

What's New?

1. Updates will be made daily, not just weekdays - this weekend being the first.  This is good since the virus doesn't take the weekends off.
2. The counts up to now, apparently, were for the data from 11:59pm the day before.  I say 'apparently' because it doesn't tell us when that policy started.
3. But it's going to change to 5pm postings, it says, but it doesn't tell us what the time frame of those numbers will be.  Obviously not 11:59pm, but when?  And this will mean that comparing days after this starts to days before it starts will be from different time periods.  

All this comes from the top of the first chart posted today (Sunday, March 22, 2020)

They haven't defined 'date of onset.' Previously, I thought the dates were when the person was confirmed positive.  The top says "Laboratory Confirmed Cases." Was I wrong?  Did it change?  There's no explanation.  I thought the addition of the chart above would help us see how the number of confirmed cases grows over time.  That's what it seemed to add to the chart immediately below.  But it's easier to use the chart below to figure out where the confirmed cases are.

Here's the link that defines the economic regions.

From today's chart we learn:

• Anchorage (pop 292,000)  has six - all travel related cases. 
• Gulf Coast (pop 81,000) has three - one non-travel.
• Interior (pop 110,000) has seven - three travel, four not.
• Southeast (73,000) has six - one travel and five not.

Given that Anchorage is the biggest community by far, perhaps Mayor Berkowitz' early drastic actions (closing most everything from schools to restaurants) may have been a good call.  But it's too early to tell.

[UPDATED 9:56pm:  From Anchorage Daily News:

"Statewide, as of Sunday evening, there were 32 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Alaska: Seven in Fairbanks; 13 in Anchorage; six in Ketchikan; two in Mat-Su, and one each in Juneau, Sterling, Soldotna and Seward."

That makes 20 new cases since the State reported yesterday.  More than doubled since Saturday.  That's the kind of exponential growth people are talking about and why people need to stay home unless it's absolutely critical.  The link on exponential growth takes you to a video that explains the concept and its application to COVID-19.]

These graphs continue to be frustrating for me.  I like that we can see tests over time.  If you look closely, these are the same two graphs that were posted yesterday.  The numbers are the same and they both end on March 20, 2010.   As I've said before:

[UPDATE Mon March 23, 2020 10:00pm:  The two graphs immediately above were replaced sometime after I did this post with the next day's graphs.  That's good, but it would also be helpful if they mentioned that they did that.  Here are the new ones.  Then I'll post the info that was posted today.

These numbers will be reflected on my chart that I'll post later tonight.]

1. Ideally these would be interactive and your cursor would show you the numbers for each day
2. The bottom one would have numbers attached to at least the last day as in the graph above
3. A third line combining the blue and red lines
4. I'm still not sure why these distinctions between State labs and commercial labs are important 
5. The lettering on the charts is going to get smaller and smaller in the next couple of weeks as they try to fit everything in.

MY UPDATED CHART

Given the changes in what the State is offering, keeping parts of my chart current is getting impossible.  There's nothing here to show a change in total tests between today's post and yesterday's.  

The only two columns that I've been able to track consistently are the first [total positive/confirmed] and the third [new positive/confirmed cases].

Alaska Covid-19 Data by Steve on Scribd

This is turning out to be one of those projects that grows way beyond the initial post.  I'm hoping I can straighten out the missing and inconsistent numbers tomorrow, if I can get through to the State Department of Health.  I know they're busy, but this seems like a fairly important set of numbers.

I'm sure the reports from other states have their own share of issues.  This all reminds me that any collective number for the US or for any state or any country is just an approximate number.  Meanwhile you can check out Worldometers pages on Corona Virus for a constantly updating count of cases, deaths, and other numbers from around the world.  As of right now (March 22, 2020, 9:11pm Alaska time) they list world wide:

• Coronavirus Cases:   338,879
• Deaths:   14,688
• Recovered:   99,011

Alaska's C0VID-19 Count For Friday March 20, 2020

The State's new post today shows:

• 3 new positive tests  (two more were reported after the report was posted)
• New category - 'Community Contact' is now 'Non-Travel'
• Date was added - wasn't there yesterday

The second part is structured the same as yesterday.  Some observations:

• The earlier reports distinguished between new positive and new negative tests.  The chart above doesn't show when the positives (confirmed) tests happened, only where.
• The charts below don't distinguish between the cumulative positive and negative tests or the daily positive or negative tests
• So, there's no way to figure out how new positive (confirmed) tests are increasing over time, unless you have made screen charts of the previous days' announcements
• Which is more or less why I started these posts and created my own table to track the daily changes in tests and daily changes in cumulative results
• The cumulative chart (below) shows a line, but there are only actual numbers on the last day, so you have to estimate for the other numbers
• The daily tests chart (further below) doesn't even have numbers for the last day, so you have to guess those numbers as well.  You can get reasonably close, but these are numbers they have and we shouldn't have to approximate.  
• Before yesterday, the reports distinguished between completed confirmed and negative tests.  They don't do that any more.  I'm assuming that the confirmed are now part of the total number of tests given.  

However, today's graphs (below) present a new challenge for me. The numbers don't add up right for me.  I still have a low grade fever and a cough and so maybe I'm just not concentrating hard enough, but this isn't high level math.   

When I use their numbers in the first chart, the cumulative totals 

• for State Tests (529) plus 
• the commercial tests (169) 
• adds up to 698 total tests since they started testing.

Going back to yesterday's post*  we see there were 513 total tests.  So subtracting

• yesterday's total 513
• from today's total of 698
• tells you that there were 185 more tests since yesterday

But when you go down to the next graph and add the numbers it comes out differently

• the blue line showing number of state tests posted today (for yesterday) we get something close to 75  - we have to guesstimate because the actual number isn't listed
• and the red line showing the number of commercial tests is just about 55
• 75+55 = 130
• which is 55 less than what the top chart (compared to yesterday's posted totals) comes to
• and even if you add or subtract a few digits because you're guessing off a graph, it's still significant

*(I have to send you to my blog post on this because the state's count page for yesterday has been replaced with today's (Friday) So you can't go back there.  Fortunately I've been posting screenshots.)

I did send an email to the state department of health to see whether I'm missing something, but there's been no response.

But that leaves me with a difficulty in putting the correct numbers in my cumulative chart.  I've done my best.

Alaska Covid-19 Data by Steve on Scribd

I understand that the Governor drastically cut state employees last year.  On top of that the people left are struggling with a massive disaster like the state has never seen.  It takes experience and time to figure out the most important numbers to report and how to report them and the state is clearly figuring this out while facing a zillion other tasks.

My intent here originally was to simply document the numbers as they changed day-to-day since that wasn't possible if you just looked at the daily reports (which replaced the previous days' reports.)   I'm doing the best that I can and appreciate any suggestions readers might have to do it better.  Or to let me know if someone else is doing this elsewhere.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#  has been trying to track each state daily, but it would appear that Alaska's changing formats has, for the moment anyway, messed up their scraping system.  The latest they have for Alaska is a total of 6 positive and 402 negative for a total of 408 tests.

If you go to the State tab, you'll see this comment for Alaska:

"Unclear if their reported number means "persons tested" or "specimens tested." We count them as "persons tested" because the header indicates this is the case. Negatives reported on site have decreased at various times in recent hours, without explanation."