Usually there are more post ideas than I have time or energy for. And I have a lot of draft posts that are either in queue for when I'm ready to finish them. And there are a lot more that probably are past their use by date.
Here's one I started the day that Steve Lindbeck officially announced his campaign to unseat Representative Don Young. I gathered the election numbers back to Young's first race for the house in 1972 when he lost to Nick Begich. Since then, the closest race was 1990 when he won by less than 8,000 votes.
The factors that matter seem to be:
Does the opponent have name recognition and a good reputation?
Lindbeck has never run for political office before, but he's had a number of jobs where his name got out to Alaskans and he had opportunities to get around the state. He was a journalist with the Anchorage Daily News. He was head of the Alaska Humanities Forum, and head of the Alaska Public Broadasting.
Presidential year or not?
Opponents seem to have done better during presidential years when more people voted.
Other factors.
More candidates in the race seems to help Young. This year the turmoil in the Republican Party may or may not have a spillover effect into this House race. Lindbeck has raised a relatively large amount for Young opponents. There were a number of incumbents house legislators who lost in the primaries this year. Young's tainted by some scandals including a road in Florida and his clout in Congress is much weakened. Will that be enough? I haven't seen any poll data, so we'll just have to wait and see.
Here's the post I began last April.
The official announcement was today, that Steve Lindbeck will run as a Democrat against Alaska's Republican Congressman for life (as some call him) Don Young.
2014
Republican Don Young Incumbent 51% 142,572
Democratic Forrest Dunbar 41% 114,602
Libertarian Jim McDermott 7.6% 21,290
Write-in 0.5% 1,277
Total Votes 279,741
2012
Republican Don Young 63.9% 185,296
Democratic Sharon M. Cissna 28.6% 82,927
Libertarian Jim C. McDermott 5.2% 15,028
NA Ted Gianoutsos 1.9% 5,589
NA Write-in 0.3% 964
Total Votes 289,804
2014 and 2012 from Ballotopedia
2008
Berkowitz, Ethan A. DEM 142560 44.97%
Wright, Don R. AI 14274 4.50%
Young, Don E. REP 158939 50.14%
Write-in Votes 1205 0.38%
State Election results -
2006
BENSON, DIANE E. DEM 93879 40.01%
CRAWFORD, ALEXANDER LIB 4029 1.72%
INCE, EVA L. GRN 1819 0.78%
RATIGAN, WILLIAM IMP 1615 0.69%
YOUNG, DON E. REP 132743 56.57%
Write-in Votes 560 0.24%
Total Votes 234645
State of Alaska
2004
ANDERS, ALVIN A. LIB 7157 2.39%
HIGGINS, THOMAS M. DEM 67074 22.36%
YOUNG, DON E. REP 213216 71.07%
FELLER, TIMOTHY A. GRN 11434 3.81%
Write-in Votes 1115 0.37%
Total Votes 299996
State of Alaska
2002
YOUNG, DON REP 169685 74.51%
deFOREST, RUSSELL GRN 14435 6.34%
CLIFT, ROB LIB 3797 1.67%
GREENE, CLIFFORD DEM 39357 17.28%
Write-in Votes 451 0.20%
Total Votes 227725
State of Alaska
2000
GREENE, CLIFFORD DEM 45372 16.54%
DORE, JIM AI 10085 3.68%
KARPINSKI, LEONARD LIB 4802 1.75%
YOUNG, ANNA C. GRN 22440 8.18%
YOUNG, DON E. REP 190862 69.56%
Write-in Votes 832 0.30%
Total Votes 274393
State of Alaska
1998
YOUNG, DON REP 139676 62.55%
DUNCAN, JIM DEM 77232 34.59%
GRAMES, JOHN GRN 5923 2.65%
Write-in Votes 469 0.21%
Total Votes 223300
State of Alaska
1996
GRAMES, JOHN J. G. G 4513 1.9|
LINCOLN, GEORGIANNA D 85114 36.4|
NEMEC, WILLIAM J., II AI 5017 2.1|
YOUNG, DON R 138834 59.4|
Writein Votes 222 0.1
State of Alaska
1994
CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PERCENTAGE
Tony Smith (D) 68,172 32.7%
Jonni Whitmore (G) 21,277 10.2%
Don Young (R) 118,537 56.9%
Write-Ins -- 254 0.1%
State of Alaska
1992
Devens, John D 102,378 42.8%
Milligan, Mike G 9,529 3.9
States, Michael A 15,049 6.2
Young, Don R 111,849 46.7
Writein votes 311 0.1
State of Alaska
1990
Devens, John S D 91,677 47.8%
Young, Don R 99,003 51.6%
State of Alaska 1990
1988
Gruenstein, Peter D 71,881 37.2%
Young, Don R 120,595 62.4%
State of Alaska 1988
1986
Begich, Pegge D 74,053 41%
Breck, Betty (Belle Blue)L 4,182 2. 3%
Young, Don R 101,799 56.4%
State of Alaska 1986
1984
Begich, Pegge D 86,052
Breck, Betty N 6,508
Young, Don R 113,582
State of Alaska 1984
1982
Dave Carlson D 52,011
Young Don R 128,274
State of Alaska 1982
1980
Parnell, Kevin D 39,922
Young, Don R 114,089
State of Alaska 1980
1978
Rodey, Patrick D 55,176
Young, Don R 61,811
State of Alaska 1978
1976
Hobson, Eben D 34,194
Young, Don R 83,722
State of Alaska 1976
1974
Hensley Willie 44,280 46.2%
Young 51,641 53.8%
State of Alaska
1972
Begich D 53,651
Young R 41,750
State of Alaska
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