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Saturday, April 18, 2020

Alaska COVID-19 Count Saturday April 18, 2020 -What Numbers Say About Age

Before looking at today's numbers (and there's some good news),  I'd like to compare the State's graph on Cases by Age Group to the state's actual age group percentages.

Orange is the COVID distribution by age.
Aqua is the state's distribution by population.  I've put these #s on top of the orange chart to make it easier to compare.  Then I've marked the difference between percent of population by age in general and percent of population that tested positive.

So, COVID cases for people

  • under 20 are well below their actual percent of population.
  • 20-29 and 80+  are equal to their population in the state
  • 30 - 69 are all above their statewide populations from +3% to +6%
  • 70-79 is just +1%


So,
  • Kids (under 20) are doing great as has been predicted by other rates in other countries.
  • People in their 20s make up 15% of COVID cases, the same as their population
  • People in their 30s make up 21% of COVID cases, making them both the highest in infection and having the greatest difference over their actual population (6%)
  • People in their 40s make up 15% of COVID cases but they are only 12% of the population  
  • People in their 50s are second highest ABOVE their actual population - they make up 18% of the COVID cases but only 13% of the population.
  • People in their 60s are 4% above their actual population. 
  • People in their 70s are just 1% above their actual population
  • People 80+ are infected in the same percentage as their actual percentage of the population

I suspect that the two oldest groups are the most self-isolated groups, which, if true, would show a good correlation between isolation and getting infected.  And those in their 30s, 40s, and 50s are probably people who are most likely not isolating as effectively as they work and do essential errands.

But all these numbers are based on actual confirmed tested cases and we know that we've only tested a small percent of the population.

OK, for today's numbers.

My calendar chart

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL 2020
MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySunday
new/totalhos=hospital

12th  = 0/013th = 1/114th = 0/115th = 0/1
16th = 0/117th = 2/318th = 3/619th = 3/920th = 3/1221st= 2/1422nd= 8/22
23rd=14/3624th =6/42
1 hos 1 dead
25th = 17/59
3 hos 1 dead
26th = 10/69
3 hos 1 dead
27th =16/89
5 hos 2 dead
28th = 13/102
6 hos 2 dead
29th=12/114
7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119
7 hos 3 dead
31st= 14/133
9 hos 3 dead





April 2020

1st=  10/143
9 hos 3 dead
2nd=8(6)/149
13 hos 3 dead
3rd=8(11)157
15 hos 3 dead
4th=15/171
16 hos 5 dead
5th=14/185
20 hos 6 dead
6th=6/191
23 hosp
6 dead
7th= 22/213
23 hosp 6 Dead
29 recovered
8th= 13/226
27 hosp 7 dead
32 recovered
9th= 9/235
27 hosp 7 dead
49 recovered
10th=11/246
28 hosp 7 dead
55 recovered
11th=11/257
31 hosp 8 dead
63 recovered
12th= 15/272
31 hosp 8 dead
66 recovered
13th= 5/277
32 Hosp 8 dead
85 Recovered
14th = 8/285
32 Hosp 9 dead
98 Recovered
15th= 8/293
34 Hosp 9 dead
106 Recovered
16th= 7/300
35 hosp 9 dead
110 recovered
17th=  9/309
36 hosp 9 dead
128 recovered
18th =  5/315
36 hos 9 dead
147 Recovered



Hospital and dead figures are total to date, not new on that date




THE GOOD NEWS
Our peak number of new cases was April 7 with 22.
Today we only had 5 new cases, the lowest number since March 30.
We've also gone 5 days now without a new death.  That's the most number of days without a new death since the first death on March 24.


STATE CHARTS


Again - the chart above is a high resolution screen shot.  If you click on it, it will enlarge and focus.  But only the chart below is interactive.  Scroll right to see it all, run your cursor over it to see all the bells and whistles.  Or go to the original at the State site.  And remember to scroll back to the left to see the rest of the post.






Cases depicted above represent permanent residency of the infected person, and may not reflect where the person is located currently, or was located when exposed or diagnosed.



My day-by-day Chart






All these daily Alaska COVID-19 Count posts can be accessed here.  (You will have to click "older posts" at the bottom to see additional pages since these take up a lot of room.)




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