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Thursday, May 07, 2020

Alaska COVID-19 Count Thursday May 7, 2020 - 2 New Cases Plus How's Your State Doing On Testing?

Alaska is doing well.  Only two more cases.  More people have recovered (291) than are still infected (83).   [I'm only talking about confirmed cases since there may be others out there who haven't been tested but are infected.]

NPR and Harvard put together a model for how much testing state's need to do before opening up businesses and relaxing stay at home orders.  Alaska is among the nine states they deemed doing enough testing.   The others are  Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

 I've added more on that at the bottom of this post.


CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH/APRIL/May 2020
MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySunday
new/totalhos=hospital

12th  = 0/013th = 1/114th = 0/115th = 0/1
16th = 0/117th = 2/318th = 3/619th = 3/920th = 3/1221st= 2/1422nd= 8/22
23rd=14/3624th =6/42
1 hos 1 dead
25th = 17/59
3 hos 1 dead
26th = 10/69
3 hos 1 dead
27th =16/89
5 hos 2 dead
28th = 13/102
6 hos 2 dead
29th= 12/114
7 hos  3 dead
30th=5/119
7 hos 3 dead
31st= 14/133
9 hos 3 dead





April 2020

1st=  10/143
hos 3 dead
2nd=8(6)/149
13 hos 3 dead
3rd=8(11)157
15 hos 3 dead
4th=15/171
16 hos 5 dead
5th= 14/185
20 hos 6 dead
6th=6/191
23 hosp
6 dead
7th= 22/213
23 hosp 6 Dead29 recovered
8th= 13/226
27 hosp 7 dead
32 recovered
9th= 9/235
27 hosp 7 dead
49 recovered
10th=11/246
28 hosp 7 dead
55 recovered
11th=11/257
31 hosp 8 dead
63 recovered
12th= 15/272
31 hosp 8 dead
66 recovered
13th= 5/277
32 Hosp 8 dead
85 Recovered
14th = 8/285
32 Hosp 9 dead
98 Recovered
15th= 8/293
34 Hosp 9 dead
106 Recovered
16th= 7/300
35 hosp 9 dead
110 recovered
17th=  9/309
36 hosp 9 dead
128 recovered
18th =  5/315
36 hos 9 dead
147 Recovered
19th= 4/319
36 hos 9 dead
153Recovered
20th 2/321
36 hos 9 dead
161 recovered
21st 8/329
36 hos 9 dead
168 recovered
22nd  6/335
36 hos  dead
196recovered
23nd  2/337
36 hos  dead
209recovered
24th  2/339
36 hos  dead
208recovered (-1 from 4/23)
25th  0/339
36 hos  dead
217recovered
26th  2/341
36 hos  dead
217recovered
27th  4/345
37 hos  dead
218recovered
28th  6/351
37 hos  dead
228 recovered
29th  4/355
36 hos  dead
240recovered
30th  0/355
36 hos  dead
252recovered



May 2020



1st  9/364
36 hos  dead
254recovered
2nd  1/365
36 hos  dead
261recovered
3rd  3/368
36 hos  dead
262recovered
4th  2/370
37 hos  dead
263recovered
5th  1/371
38 hos  dead
277 recovered
6th  1/372
38 hos 10 dead
284recovered
7th  2/372
38 hos 10 dead
291recovered







State Charts



This screen shot is high resolution so you can click on it to enlarge and focus.  But click here if you want to use the chart interactively, to play with the original and see other charts they have.



My Day-To-Day Chart


In the last week, Alaska has tested just under 5000 more people.  But remember, people who have been tested and found negative, could be exposed the next day.


The Harvard model looks at two main things - how many tests a state needs to do to be able to phase out social distancing.
"How Much Testing Does Your State Need To Contain Its Outbreak?
Harvard’s Global Health Institute estimated minimum targets for how much testing each state needs by May 15 to contain its outbreak through a strategy of testing, tracing and isolating positive cases and their contacts. Death rates are provided as a marker of outbreak size. positive test ratio of 10% or less is the target advised by the World Health Organization. States with higher ratios may not be testing enough, or testing a diverse enough pool of people."
Alaska is in great shape, compared to most states.  Here are their numbers for Alaska.  The death column is just to give a sense of the issue for each state.  Our target for tests is well below our actual 89 tests/100K people.  And we're way below the ratio they want for positive tests/overall tests.  The target is 10% maximum, and we're at less than one-half percent (.4%).

You can see the list of all the states here.




Here's the piece describing this on NPR:

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