It's harder to keep track of the numbers I set up based on the state numbers because they don't report things exactly like they did originally. I'll keep posting those numbers at the bottom of these posts until I figure out a better way.
Meanwhile I think this chart will help show the exponential growth that is beginning to occur.
CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
| ||||||
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
| new/total | 12th = 0/0 | 13th = 1/1 | 14th = 0/1 | 15th = 0/1 | ||
| 16th = 0/1 | 17th = 2/3 | 18th = 3/6 | 19th = 3/9 | 20th= 3/12 | 21st= 2/14 | 22nd=8/22 |
| 23rd=14/36 | ||||||
Here's what the State posted today:
The State hasn't posted how they've determined the date of onset. But based on other studies I've seen in other countries, the number of confirmed cases lags behind onset. My chart above shows that on March 15 there was only one confirmed case in Alaska. But this shows lots of cases already there, so I'm guessing that this is a preview of the fast increase that's come in the last few days, and, presumably the next couple of weeks.
This shows Anchorage numbers getting more proportional to its size. Seven of the new Anchorage cases were confirmed on the military bases and that's why they declared an emergency Sunday night.
There was a sharp drop-off in tests. Is that because of the weekend? Or is it because the State has change the time they report cases? Or? I don't know.
MY CHART - Yesterday the state first posted the two graphs from Saturday again on Sunday. I had trouble working out my numbers in yesterday's post because of that. They later fixed it and I added the new charts to yesterday's post. I've adjusted the numbers from yesterday in the table below. You'll see I'm having trouble in the columns on new negative state lab and new negative commercial lab tests. The state began reporting those separately from the positive tests. Now it doesn't say those are negative tests only (see two graphs above). But it doesn't identify whether the positive tests were done in State or commercial labs. As I've said in previous posts, I'm not sure why they thought it important to distinguish the two types of labs. But with the change in how they report, I have to figure out whether and how to change the columns I'm reporting.
Alaska Covid-19 Data by Steve on Scribd
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