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Sunday, March 22, 2020

Alaska COVID-19 Case Count Sat 3/21/20 Up To 14 Confirmed [8 More Today to 22]

As you can see in the Case Count screen shot below - the State updates these numbers "weekdays by 12:30pm." Except yesterday was a weekend day.  But I did check and they had made an update.  But they didn't tell us if they're now updating daily or not.

New:
This first chart is new and it's welcome.  People can now see, from the state, what region of Alaska they were in.  The color coding is helpful.  BUT this new chart puts up the cases based on "date of onset,"  not when the test confirmed they had COVID-19.   I don't know how they determine 'date of onset."   I'm not a data viz expert, but I find the colors scattered in different places confusing.  One has to stop and count how many from each category.  That's ok now, but won't be soon.  And this chart is going to run out of room soon.  But it's a first start at showing what's happening over time.





The format of next chart seems unchanged from yesterday.  Except there's a new note on top:  Cases Hospitalized.  And eventually, I fear, deaths.  I'd note again, that yesterday they relabeled "Community Contact" as "Non-Travel."  





What's Missing?



  1. Symptoms, circumstances (travel) of those who tested positive.
  2. # of medical provider tests requests turned down by state for testing.   This would show us many other people were found to be credible candidates for a test, but weren't tested.  It's clear this is an issue in Alaska and around the country.  
  3. Reasons tests turned down. My guess here is lack of tests and some sort of triaging that has not been explained well.  
  4. Actual numbers for the "How many people were tested each day?" chart.  Actually, if those charts were interactive so a cursor going along the lines would see the number, that would be great!  Are there data viz people who could volunteer to help the state do these charts better?  Would the state accept the help? 
  5. Definitions of Terms - What exactly does "Travel Related" include?  Out of country only?  Out of state?  Certain states?  What does "Non-Travel" mean?  What about "Date of Onset?"  How do they calculate that?  
  6. Explanations of changes - Why did they replace "Community Contact" with "Non-Travel"?  Why they have introduced new charts - what were they trying to clear up for people?  They previously separated cumulative confirmed from cumulative negative state tests and negative commercial tests.  Now the total tests (distinguished by whether done by State lab or commercial lab) no longer says "negative."  So I have to assume the positives are included there.  
Implications

Which data are presented and how they are presented, AND which data are not presented  reflect what an agency thinks is important, what an agency wants people to see, and what an agency doesn't want people to see.  These decisions might be based on: 
  • very conscious decisions, 
  • not a lot of conscious decision making, or 
  • simply doing the best they can
My thoughts:
  1. The State thinks it's important to
    1. show the number of confirmed cases
    2. show the location of confirmed cases
    3. distinguish between State lab tests and commercial lab tests
    4. show what parts of the state have confirmed cases
  2. The State thinks it's  a) less important,  b) they don't want to call attention to,  c) they aren't keeping track of, d) they're trying to keep the info simple, or e) they don't have the time or skills to offer: 
    1. number of medically recommended tests turned down
    2. reasons why those tests were turned down
    3. whether the positive tests were found in State or commercial labs
MY UPDATED CHART






NEW DATA UP TODAY  - I'll catch up on this later, but here's a quick take

Just as I was finishing this, I double checked to find that the state is now doing daily posts and there's a new one for today - Sunday, March 22. That's good, we need daily reports. But they've changed the format and way they are posting confirmed tests (the top chart with the colored boxes). Also there is the largest jump to date -  it adds 8 new cases for a total of 22 cases.











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