Alaska COVID-19 Case Count 3/27/20 -1 More Dead, 2 More Hospitalize, 16 More Confirmed to 85 Total

[UPDATED March 27, 2020 8:50pm:  The ADN has more details on today's death - a 63 year old woman with underlying health issues - and further restrictions on Alaskans.]


My calendar update on new confirmed cases/cumulative total, plus hospitalizations and deaths based on State posting.  [Note: that link will take you to the latest posting, not necessarily the one with the charts below.  That's what motivated me to make screenshots each day and reformat the information.]

CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ALASKA MARCH 2020
Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
new/total	hos=hospital		12th  = 0/0	13th = 1/1	14th = 0/1	15th = 0/1
16th = 0/1	17th = 2/3	18th = 3/6	19th = 3/9	20th = 3/12	21st= 2/14	22nd= 8/22
23rd=14/36	24th =6/42 1 hos  1 dead	25th = 17/59 3 hos  1 dead	26th = 10/69 3 hos  1 dead	27th =16/89 5 hos  2 dead

State's Posting Today

If you notice, the first case in the chart was on March 5.  The state didn't post its first confirmed case until March 13.  So that's why the chart says "Date of Onset."  The line about "cases being assigned . . . is still not clear to me.  I'm assuming they mean to a date on the chart.  Does onset mean when patient first exhibited symptoms?  And I'm hazy on the difference between diagnosis and report.  I assume someone could be diagnosed one day and reported to the State another day.  But I'm not sure if that's what they mean.

 Fairbanks has overtaken Ketchikan for second place after Anchorage.  Ketchikan has added 1 case to get to 12 and Fairbanks has added 5 to get to 15.

We now have had 2388 people tested.  But be careful.  The last date on the cumulative graph is 3/25, but the last date on the test by day chart is 3/26.  I understand how easy it is to get things wrong.    One of the kind of things that makes tracking these numbers sketchy.  Take everything with a grain of salt.  That said, let me thank the people who are putting this all together everyday.  Getting all these details right is a daunting task.  Especially with all the other assignments I'm sure the charters have.  I have enough trouble just collecting their data and getting it accurate, so I know how easy it is to not see something that needs a fix.  

But using their total number of people tested and the total number of people confirmed, as I figure this, we have about 3.5% of the people taking the test testing positive.  [Note: one of the deaths was tested and confirmed Outside of Alaska, so his test wouldn't be in our totals (I don't think), but his confirmed status would be.  

We're all presuming that the people tested had symptoms and or traveled somewhere where the virus is widespread.  This the rest of the population that wasn't tested, shouldn't be positive at that same rate.  But that's a big presumption.  Here's what the numbers would look like if the rest of the population tested positive at:

1% = 7300 people positive

.5%= 3650 people positive

.1% =  730 people positive

And many of those folks are circulating and spreading the virus.  So the number of actual positive cases would be growing very quickly every day.  

My Original Chart - I've changed the format here because the State's format changes made it impossible to keep filling in some of the columns accurately.  I think the info on here is the most important - of what the state gives us.  But it also overlaps with the chart on top somewhat, but in a different format.  

Alaska Covid-19 Data NewFor... by Steve on Scribd