Yesterday's Anchorage Daily News headline was BIG. Today's is BIGGER. We know something big and bad has happened, but what?How many of you went about your day yesterday as usual?
How come we weren't glued to our televisions all day watching the news unfold, watching economists explaining what was going on? How we got into this? What it means? What might happen next?
Because there are no good visuals for this story. This story could be the economic equivalent to jets crashing into the World Trade Center, but that's a VISIBLE story, which means it's a story we can understand, at least emotionally. We can see it, we can imagine "what if I were in that building?" We can FEEL it. We certainly didn't agree afterward on the causes and what to do about it.
But this story is one we can't see. Unless we've defaulted on a loan and lost our home, we can't connect to it. It's basically INVISIBLE except for the large headlines. It's harder to get film of millions of people losing their homes. Shots of for sale signs don't have the same emotional impact as giant buildings collapsing. We don't understand it, can't feel it, it doesn't fit into our brains in a way that connects directly to our emotional processing.
The debate about this election suffers from the same problems. While we might relate to some of the issues emotionally, the explanations and options require serious intellectual work. We don't want to take the time or don't know how to understand the policies the candidates propose. It takes time. It takes work. It takes intellectual training and rigor. And at the end, we still don't know for certain which options will be best.
But we rarely know for sure if we are making the optimal decision - even in more tangible situations like ordering dinner in a restaurant, buying a car, or getting married. How many of you have gone to the candidates' websites and actually looked at what Obama and McCain have to offer as solutions? (Probably those who get this far have looked at those links already.) It takes a certain level of intellectual ability [and curiosity.] These ideas are difficult to visualize. It is easier to simplify complex situations into emotional slogans like "Vote for Change" and "Country First: Reform, Prosperity, and Peace." (If you went to those links, you'd recognize these.)
The key here is how we know things. We seem to be wired to immediately get emotional messages - be they accurate or not - about whether we are in danger. In danger because we believe we are losing constitutional guarantees or because we believe we are under threat of a terrorist attack. To actually understand whether we are in danger or not (in situations less obvious than someone with a gun demanding our money) requires a lot of hard work gathering and analyzing facts that most people are unable or unwilling to do.
So, is the financial crisis an economic equivalent to 9/11 that we aren't registering because there are no easy to understand emotional symbols (like planes fying into buildings) and the facts and are too difficult to analyze intellectually? What do I know?
"It takes a certain level of intellectual ability."
ReplyDeleteDoesn't it take more intellectual curiosity than ability?
You could have all the intellectual ability in th world but not use it, which is much worse than having less ability but the curiosity and dedication to learn what you have to learn.
I am being abit nit-picky, I know...
Excellent, post, Steve. Last night I had a Tupperware Party over at my house and plenty of wine flowing with an assortment of cheeses. The topic of the economy came up and I was stunned to hear how many of them are not paying attention to the news.
ReplyDeleteNot 9/11, but a nuclear event in terms of money. But because there is no visual, it is easier to ignore. I also think it is a sense of helplessness. Nothing we can do. My own brain is struggling to accept the ramifications. I just don't want to go there.
People don't have investments? Holdings in real estate outside Alaska's bubble-land?, equities?, money markets? No retirement accounts? No concerns about your PFD future returns?
ReplyDeleteWe felt things were bad enough that we moved our funds to insured accounts and treasuries. Never, ever had taken such a protective move before with our investments, but this past week was really, really bad. And it only got worse.
We had lost our "prudent person's" confidence that risk was tolerable. Millions more saw that same problem.
We don't consider ourselves that concerned about these matters. Then again, I thought the US response to 9/11 was a misguided overreaction.
Perhaps we're from different planets.
Oh yes Jay, we will be affected, an we should have probably spent the day in front of the tv with economists of different stripes explaining what is going on. But we didn't, because television doesn't know how to present this and we don't know enough to ask the right questions. Even the people in charge have been taken by surprise on this.
ReplyDeleteI have lots of questions, just no good answers. Essentially they are saying "Trust us." But they've been at the wheel on the ride to where we are now.
Steve, This is great - the ways of knowing! I have my graduate students looking at the candidates' web sites and being very disappointed that the 'answers' aren't there. Maybe I will refer them to your Blog to read this! Dianne at UAA
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