McCain Has an Interesting Past, Obama Has an Interesting Future

I don't make predictions often or lightly because there are just too many unpredictables, especially in politics, but I'm getting a strong sense of where things are going in the US presidential election.

CNN has become a gossip station, focusing on the day-to-day scraps of information

• today's poll data,

• snippets of candidates talking about each other, ignoring what they say on the issues,

• goading partisans to make nasty comments about the other candidate, etc.

This, of course, makes the campaign into a reality show - who will end up as the next American Idol President? "Who says the campaign can't be entertaining?" is one of their campaign ad lines.

• Can Hillary get enough votes to stop Obama?
  
• with story after story on how she might get them through primaries, super delegates, and even enticing those 'pledged' to Obama

• Will dragging out the Democratic primary cost them the election in November?

• Why is McCain competitive when so many people think the US is going in the wrong direction?

Very little about their policy proposals, no serious analysis of their past records and accomplishments, nothing with any meat.

Well, here's my take on things.

I was there for the excitement of the Democratic caucus in Anchorage. It was palpable. People were excited about politics like they haven't been for decades.

And there is no mistake that the people of Thailand here are excited about the possibility of Obama as president. My sense is the Thai perception is echoed around the world. Just Obama's election would totally change the rest of the world's image of the USA.

Obama's response about his pastor was statesmanlike.

• The content was intellectually solid - putting into words a new understanding of race relations that the American public was ready to hear,
  
• The language and images spoked directly to everyone
  
• The delivery sounded honest and authentic
  

Compare this to Clinton's shrill and ineffective response to her Bosnia Airport-under-fire story.


What about McCain?
The Republican primary was packed with candidates who fell by the wayside quickly. McCain was the front runner only at the very end so was never really the target. At the end Huckabee gracefully dropped out compared to Clinton's clinging. (And she has every right, and I don't necessarily buy the media's story that this will hurt the Democrats in the end.) McCain hasn't been under any serious pressure or probing spotlights the way the Democratic candidates have been.

When that happens, his numbers will drop quickly. Reading between the lines, it sounds like

• he's testy,
  
• he talks off the cuff without thinking,
  
• his ideas don't seem to be based on any comprehensive world view. Instead they seem to be idiosyncratically based on his emotional reactions to his experiences and so they are inconsistent and unpredictable.
  
• his party's establishment has no enthusiasm for him.

Once he and Obama are the two candidates, McCain will be creamed.

In summary, McCain has an interesting past. Obama has an interesting future.