The last session got out late and so it took me a bit to find where to go. I got in late, but judging from the program, I think I was listening to Jane Wolken from UAF talking about Impacts and Consequences of Climate Changes in Alaska's Forests. I've got a slide, but didn't get into it enough to post more than this.
Now Todd Brinkman is talking about "Impacts of Climate Change on Local Availability of Wildlife: An Integrative Model"
[On the surface - this sounded like a reasonably sensitive study in how Alaska Natives were involved in the study.]
He went to villages and talked to local villagers to have communities self identify important species. In each village, questions like:
When does most moose harvest occur ? What factors affect . . . (he changed the slide)
Then took the reports back to the village to get their feedback and revised it until they said it was right. Developed a relationship table.
Temperatures, Rain and Drought, Snow, Fire, etc. and how these impact hunting.
Go back discuss how climate has changed in the past and then return to look at how it is happening now and thoughts about the future. Pretty interesting. Almost unanimous agreement between local hunters and the trajectory of change.
Then go back to communities with the maps and say, this could be the likely scenario of how things may change and why. Based on what they've been saying this is possible scenario and then talk about adaptation.
56 % no increase
The last two I'll give you the names and titles, but I just wasn't able to keep up.
Tracy Rogers - Future Sea Ice Dynamics and Implications for Access to the Arctic
What's a biome? From the University of California Museum of Paleontology:
Biomes are defined as "the world's major communities, classified according to the predominant vegetation and characterized by adaptations of organisms to that particular environment" (Campbell 1996). The importance of biomes cannot be overestimated. Biomes have changed and moved many times during the history of life on Earth. More recently, human activities have drastically altered these communities. Thus, conservation and preservation of biomes should be a major concern to all. For further information, please consult the references page.
Here we group biomes into six major types:
Freshwater Marine Desert Forest Grassland Tundra
Results: 1. Resiliance - areas with most and least change
60% of Alaska may shift from its present biome.
. . . Much of SE Alaska shifting
Western tundra most vulnerable with least resilience
Potential expansion of Tundra swan.
Phase 2: Applied further, narrowed the goals. Use better and more data, only look at biome shifts, not species. For Alaska, Yukon, and Northwest Territories.
I'm leaving out her discussion of the methodology.
Clustering 11 biomes and 18 biomes.
Preliminary results. Will wrap up at end of September.
Greatest resillience in Aluetians, SC Alaska, Southeas, and parts of interior AK and southern Yukon.